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Euro Strength, Dollar Weakness


Author: admin | Total views: 47 | Word Count: 627 | Category: Forex trading signals | Date: Apr 5th 2008

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Manufacturing data from Eurozone was mixed, with Germany manufacturing PMI strengthened to 59.4 while Eurozone manufacturing PMI dipped slightly to 56.5. Meanwhile, UK manufacturing PMI steadied and recovers slightly to 51.9. Release of US ISM manufacturing index was re-scheduled to Wednesday.


EUR/USD's strength continues today reaches as high as 1.3288 so far. Sustained break of 1.3244 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3362 to 1.3051 at 1.3243) indicates corrective fall from 1.3362 has completed at 1.3051. At this point, further rally is expected to follow to 1.3364 resistance. Also, with a bullish flag pattern in weekly chart as background, whole rally from 1.2483 should have resumed for 1.3668 high. Break of 1.3364 resistance will confirm this case.


On the downside, touching of 1.3230 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first but downside should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3170) and resume rise. Though, sustained break of this EMA will turn focus back to 1.3091 and 1.3051 low again.


In the bigger picture, EUR/USD's medium term up trend from 1.1639 (06 low) is still in force and is expected to continue towards 1.3668 (04 high) and probably further to 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. However, as it's unclear whether this rally from 1.1639 represents resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 or just part of a large scale consolidation that started at 1.3668, close attention will be paid to loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as EUR/USD approaches 1.3668 and then 1.3822. On the downside, break of 1.2760 support will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that whole medium term rally from 1.1639 has possibly completed.


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