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Forex Secrets Exposed


Author: admin | Total views: 89 | Word Count: 651 | Category: Forex trading signals | Date: Jul 19th 2008

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Yen Buying Continues


The Japanese yen edges higher again across the board today. Market was thin in Asian session with Japanese "Coming to Age" holiday. Nevertheless the Japanese yen extended last week's gain on speculation that BoJ will raise rates next week. Also, there were carry trade unwinding, in particular, against high yield currencies like AUD and NZD. Technically speaking, though further fall is still favorable in the yen crosses, downside should be limited in short term as the crosses are approaching support from 55 days EMAs.


Elsewhere, after Friday's NFP inspired rally, dollar retreats mildly today against European majors. There are no important economic data scheduled to release today and tomorrow from the US. Though, Fed's Kohn will speak on economic outlook in Atlanta today. Focus will be on the upcoming Trade Balance and Retail Sales data on Wednesday and Friday.


Germany retail sales and factory orders will be featured today. Nov retails sales came in worse than expected by dropping 0.3% mom, 0.5% yoy. Factory orders is expected to rebound from Oct's 1.1% mom fall to 1.5% yoy rise. But reactions to these data could be muted as focus should be on Thursday's ECB meeting.


Even though edging marginally lower to 1.9261, cable was support by rising trend line (now at 1.9286) and recovers mildly. Hourly MACD's turn above signal line suggest that an intraday low is possibly formed and further recovery should be seen towards 55 hours EMA (now at 1.9392).


As discussed before, with 1.9177 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185) remains intact, we're still holding on to the preferred case that price actions from 1.9846 is merely correction to rise from 1.8834 only.


With mild bullish convergence conditions in hourly MACD and RSI as background, break of 1.9492 resistance will indicate a short term bottom is formed. Above of 1.9564 support turned resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.9750 to 1.9261 at 1.9563) will add much credence to the case that fall from 1.9750 has completed and should bring further rise to this resistance.


However, one should note that further decline cannot be ruled out as long as cable stays below 1.9432 resistance. Below 1.9261 will indicate fall from 1.9750 has resumed. Also, sustained break of 1.9177 cluster support will dampen this case seriously and should bring further decline to 1.8834 support.


In the bigger picture, cable's medium term up trend from 1.7047 is still in progress and further rise is expected to follow towards 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). But close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches 2.0106 cluster resistance. On the downside, sustained break of 1.9177 cluster support will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that the whole rise from 1.7047 has possibly completed. Break of 1.8834 will add further weight to this case and turn focus back to 1.8517 support.



Article Source: Easy Forex Strategy



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Secret Sebastian

Professional Forex Trader

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